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Markets started the year in confident mood, betting that the US Federal Reserve would take the lead on interest rate cuts, with as many as six cuts in 2024. Those hopes have since faded and forecasts of a first cut in June are looking more uncertain. 

The popularity of passive investment funds, typically exchange listed index trackers, has grown steadily over the past decades. At $13.3 trillion, the total value of US passive funds at the end of 2023 topped the value of active funds for the first time.

Key central banks suggested that rates would be cut this year and appeared less concerned about the possibility that inflation would rebound. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates on hold at its March meeting and maintained its guidance for three 25 bps rate cuts in 2024, with financial markets now readjusting to the Fed’s own projections.